Highlights
* After a lockdown the world is slowly opening up
*The New Normal –The Global Scenario
*The Indian Scenario
After a three month lockdown to control the Coronavirus Pandemic, the world is being `forced to slowly’ open up. Though, the race is on for a vaccine, but the World Health Organisation has declared that ` we need to live with this Pandemic at least a year, if not more.’
With mandatory geographical quarantines and stay at home orders, business and commerce shut, many economies globally have suffered huge economic and human losses. Many will die of hunger and joblessness if not the virus. The fear is that the world might experience a great recession and depression.
So, the consensus is that it is time to restart; albeit slowly and carefully. Measures to lift the lockdown are being implemented across the globe.
The `human to human transmission’ of COVID-19 forced humanity to go into a lockdown. As per records, this is perhaps the first time that humanity had stayed cooped up in their houses. Looking at the state of affairs in US, Italy and Spain, where the medical fraternity found it almost impossible to deal with the Pandemic, India and other countries went in for a early lockdown. We had just a few cases of Coronavirus but the reverse migration from across the world added on to the cases. Inspite of the lockdown, the infections and cases have been rising. Currently, India has more than 2 lakh Coronavirus cases.
With over six million cases of active Coronavirus worldwide, the death toll has reached 369K. Surprisingly, the world’s biggest economy USA seems to be the worst affected. There have been more 106,925 deaths in the USA.
As per the BBC news, `As the US battles the unabated rise of coronavirus cases as well as deaths, a new study from Minnesota-based Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) has said that COVID-19 virus may well last 18 to 24 months, especially given that only 5 per cent to 15 per cent of the US population is likely infected at this point.’
The New York Times on Sunday, May 24, posted the names of all the Americans who had perished because of coronavirus on its front page. An obituary but also a reality check for people that all is not well. Yet, many want to go on the streets because it is a free country and they do not even want to wear a mask. Also, the latest protests in US to the call of `Black Lives Matter’ have increased the fear about a rise in the COVID-19 infections. The protests started after the killing of 46-year-old black man George Floyd
Data released by Worldometer reveals that next to USA stands Brazil, Russia, Spain, UK, Italy and then India.
Coronavirus – How the Lockdown is being lifted? A New Normal
So, what does the scenario look like? As for now, everyone wears a mask, maintains social distance and work from home continues. All offices which are reopening work on 10 -30 per cent capacity.
Trends have changed across countries. How to make a mask, what are the symptoms of coronavirus, medicines, sanitizers are the new buzzwords in peoples’ lives. People are more worried about protecting themselves from Coronavirus, learning about Immunity Boosters and Yoga.
New quarantine centers have been set up. Malls, Big gatherings, tourism, hotels continue l to remain closed. There are containment and non containment zones and depending on that new rules are being set up. There are also red, orange and Green zones depending on the no of cases. International borders continue to be sealed and virtual meetings are the new norm.
Businesses are reopening and in some countries children are back in school in small numbers.
How is Europe emerging after a lockdown ?
The cases are slowly reducing and now Europe is limping back to normal.
In Europe, countries have opened up but the international borders till remained sealed.
Germany – Has begun opening up: control of lifting the lockdown will now be in the hands of Germany’s 16 federal states16 federal states.
France – Nearly all of France is now in a so-called ” green zone “, where restrictions can ease faster. Paris has moved from a red to an orange zone.
Baltic States – Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia – became the first countries in Europe to allow free movement again, but only with each other.
Has outlined a four-stage plan on 4 May to start easing one of the strictest lockdowns in Europe, which saw children fewer than 14 confined to their homes for six weeks.
Spain – Moved to a second phase for 70 per cent of Spaniards, but Madrid, Barcelona and some other regions were remaining under tighter phase-one restrictions. The state of emergency is to end on 21 June, restoring freedom of movement.
Italy – One of the worst affected countries, Italy imposed a strict and lengthy lockdown on 7 March initially in the north, then nationwide. In early May, some restrictions were relaxed and people are now able to travel for longer distances, as well as visit their relatives in small numbers. Travel between regions too has started.
Netherlands, Austria, Denmark, Poland, Switzerland, Greece, Russia, Portugal too are opening up in small ways.
People can now take children to the parks, visit relatives nearby, visit hairdressers and beauty parlors. Churches are opening up and people can attend funerals and weddings in small numbers.
India: Lockdown has been lifted in a phased manner
The world has been looking at India because it a densely populated country. The lockdown has been very cruel to the poor and migrant workers. Now, from June 1st the government has opened up country and domestic travel. Railways will start moving people. Businesses are itching to restart production.
But the COVID lockdown has not ended. While Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday asked Indians to exercise extra caution as the economy opens up, in his address to the nation through the monthly “Mann ki Baat” radio programme.
“A large part of economy has opened up and it is time to be more careful,” Modi said, a day after the central government came up with a phased plan for reopening the country while locking down containment zones till June 30.
In his 30-minute address, the PM said staying at home as much as possible, while maintaining six-feet distance and wearing masks while going out is all the more important now even as he credited a ‘people-driven response’ for the ‘slower spread’ of the virus in the country compared to other nations.
Ratings agency CRISIL predicts India’s growth to fall off the cliff and contract 5% in fiscal 2021, mowed down by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Economic conditions have precipitously slipped since CRISIL’s mid-April forecast of 1.8% gross domestic product (GDP) growth and it expect the first quarter to suffer a massive contraction of 25%.
“About 10% of gross domestic product (GDP) in real terms could be permanently lost— going back to pre-pandemic growth rates in the next three years does not seem likely,” CRISIL says.
Five Indian states contributing nearly 27% of the country’s gross domestic product are leading a recovery in the conomy as it slowly emerges from the world’s biggest lockdown, a study by Elara Securities Inc. shows.
Kerala, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Haryana and Karnataka have seen a pickup in activity, based on an analysis of indicators such as power consumption, traffic movement, arrival of farm products at wholesale markets and Google mobility data, Garima Kapoor, an economist at Elara Securities in Mumbai, wrote in a note.
Some of the most industrialized states such as Maharashtra and Gujarat were trailing because of tough measures still in place to contain the Covid-19 pandemic.
India will begin a phased lifting of the nationwide lockdown from June 8, allowing shopping malls, restaurants and places of worship to reopen in areas where virus infections are under control.
New Consumption Patterns
Consumers are shifting consumption patterns as they adapt to a “new way of life.”
The analysis showed there was pent-up demand for salon services, air conditioners, air travel, bikes, vacuum cleaners and washing machines. Searches associated with panic-buying when the lockdown was first announced — such as pharmacy and grocery stores and liquid soaps — have eased. Consumers haven’t given up looking for items such as earphones, hair oil, laptops, mobile phones, jewellery, mops, toys and microwave ovens.
China tries to overtake US
According to a Bloomberg report, China is all set to invest more than a trillion dollars into key technologies, to try and overtake US as the global leader of technology.
“In the masterplan backed by President Xi Jinping himself, China will invest an estimated $1.4 trillion over six years to 2025, calling on urban governments and private tech giants like Huawei Technologies Co. to lay fifth generation wireless networks, install cameras and sensors, and develop AI software that will underpin autonomous driving to automated factories and mass surveillance,” notes the report.
It adds that the country’s biggest firms of cloud computing and data, such as Alibaba Group Holding Ltd and Tensing Holding Ltd, will be the “linchpins of the upcoming endeavour”.
The world is surely changing and how…!